Is It Halftime in the Iranian War?

There have been talks between the United States and Iran over the past two days. On Saturday, Trump issued a 48-hour ultimatum: open the Strait of Hormuz or face strikes on Iranian power plants. The Department of Defense has extended this deadline, giving Iran five days.[1] The president is offering a diplomatic opening but making clear the window is narrow. Five days from now is Friday night. The markets will be closed all weekend. That's when Trump likes to act. 

That's also when the USS Tripoli, along with 2,000 Marines, will be arriving in theater.[2] Right behind it, the USS Boxer, an amphibious assault ship carrying 4,500 sailors and Marines.[3] Those Marines are bringing an infantry battalion team backed by helicopters, F-35s, and armored landing vehicles, en route from San Diego. On top of that, elements of the 82nd Airborne have been ordered to the Gulf as the Pentagon weighs options for Kharg Island, Iran's primary oil export terminal.[4] Iran is on the clock.

Three Weeks of Strikes

A lot has happened in three weeks. Nearly all of Iran’s air defenses have been destroyed, and its short- and medium-range missile forces, along facilities to produce them, lie in ruins. The drone manufacturing infrastructure has been dismantled. Over 120 ships have been sunk, making this the largest naval defeat since World War II.[5] The senior military leadership that ran Iran for 47 years has been decapitated. Over the past several weeks, Tehran has attacked over 300 civilian targets.[6] Iran has not struck a tanker in the Strait for seven days but did target Arab oil infrastructure the week prior.

A Regime in Chaos

The new Supreme Leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, son of the Ayatollah killed on February 28, is MIA.[7] The CIA assesses he may be wounded and possibly incapacitated. There has been no proof of life. While his status remains unclear, the Republican Guard is consolidating power.[8] Some commanders have fled to rural areas. The head of one militia escaped into a forest, where ordinary Iranians spotted his group making a fire, alerted Mossad, and the IDF eliminated him and his group with a missile strike.[9] Security forces are on the run, and the regime is operating without central coordination.

This will create complications at the negotiating table. What's left of the regime doesn't trust each other. Nobody knows who is talking to who, so factions suspect each other of treason. Trump cannot even publicly identify who he is negotiating with. He says it is too risky and would likely result in that person being killed. 

The Stakes Get Higher

Iran recently fired two mid-range ballistic missiles at the joint U.S.-British base at Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean, approximately 2,500 miles away.[10] Both were intercepted, but it is the longest range an Iranian missile has ever been fired. Iran had previously denied possessing missiles with this capability. The launches revealed that Iran had developed the capacity to reach every major European capital, and potentially, within a few more years, the eastern United States.

This is also what brought allies off the sidelines. The same countries that opposed American action changed their position the moment they understood what Iran was actually capable of. They were being misled about the threat. North Korea is the cautionary example of what happens when the world waits too long. That miscalculation produced a nuclear state with missiles capable of reaching Los Angeles. The Diego Garcia launch made clear Iran was on the same trajectory.

The Diplomacy

Trump will likely send Vance, Witkoff, and Kushner to negotiate a deal this week. If this track develops, it bears a resemblance to the early stages of what we saw in Venezuela. The announcement of ongoing talks has already lowered oil prices and rallied markets.[11] According to President Trump, an unidentified Iranian official has already reached out to Washington to discuss a ceasefire, the first such contact since the strikes began.

Iran's Mizan News Agency, the Islamic Republic's judiciary-run propaganda outlet, posted on X that 'no dialogue exists between Tehran and Washington,' claiming Trump's statements are merely an effort to lower energy prices and buy time.[12] Two things can be true: Trump does want lower energy prices, and talks are still happening. But I'd weigh that denial carefully. This is the same regime that spent years insisting it wasn't developing nuclear weapons and didn't possess missiles capable of reaching Europe. Both turned out to be false. When a government's official media arm has a documented history of strategic deception, its denials aren't news. They're noise.

The American Position

The American position is clear, and notably distinct from the failed 2015 nuclear framework, and it should be. No nuclear weapons. No enrichment. Reduced missile capability. Peace in the Middle East. Iran's existing enriched uranium must be transferred out of the country. There will be no financial transfers to Iran and no inspections-based compliance model. If a deal is reached, the United States intends to physically remove the enriched uranium itself. This is what a real deal looks like.

The world spent a decade pretending President Obama’s JCPOA was sufficient. It wasn't. The Diego Garcia launch proved it. These terms aren't maximalist. They're the minimum necessary to ensure Iran cannot resume where it left off the moment American attention shifts elsewhere. The objective is straightforward: a government in Tehran that does not fund terrorism, does not threaten Americans, and is not ideologically committed to our destruction.

The Coalition

Twenty-two countries, most of them NATO members along with Japan, South Korea, Australia, New Zealand, Bahrain, and the UAE, have coordinated to secure free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz.[13] Ship traffic through the Strait has fallen by over 95 percent since the first American strike, from approximately 130 vessels per day to fewer than five.[14] The United States is energy-independent, but European and Asian allies depend heavily on Gulf oil transit.

The United States has underwritten global energy security for over 80 years. If 20% of the world's oil supply is cut off by a rogue regime and allies do not respond, that represents a fundamental failure of the post-war security arrangement. Just as NATO members were pressed to increase defense spending, other countries are being asked to take greater responsibility for their own energy security. The Dow rose 600 points and oil prices fell back into the $90s.

Kharg Island

Beyond the immediate ultimatum, if Iranian negotiators do not engage seriously with Witkoff, the United States will likely weigh two options: seizing Kharg Island or imposing a naval blockade.

Seizing the island would give the United States direct control over the regime's primary revenue source. The United States could then direct funds to whatever faction it chooses. But the risks are significant. The island is likely mined and fortified, and Iranian forces stationed there could mount a determined defense. Remaining Iranian missiles and drones would be directed at any landing force. It is not an impossible operation, but it would be costly. There would be casualties.

A naval blockade carries less immediate risk. Any tanker loading at Kharg Island would be subject to interception. This would also create serious pressure on Beijing, which depends heavily on Iranian oil, and could compel China to lean on whatever remains of Iranian leadership to negotiate seriously.

America's credibility is on the line. The United States has invested significantly and cannot allow the regime to control the Strait. Oil prices would not recover, and the damage to American prestige would be lasting. Iran is not a superpower. Completing this mission would open a new era of American energy dominance that could shape geopolitics for the rest of the century.

Friday Night

Iran must take the deal or face the consequences. The United States did not deploy this level of military force to be ignored at the negotiating table. This is not a soft deal. The 2015 framework left uranium enrichment in place, allowed missiles to be built, and kept reactors running. None of that is acceptable here. Iran either shuts it all down, or the United States shuts off the revenue stream at Kharg Island.

Iran's dangerous capabilities have been largely destroyed. They are nearly neutered. Commercial shipping has not resumed normal operations, which is why control of the Strait remains the central strategic objective. Trump has made clear it will open, and that if a deal is reached, the oil will become jointly controlled. If that happens, the United States can declare a meaningful victory. Some predicted this would be a five-to-six-week campaign. Three weeks in, this isn't halftime. It looks like the end of the fourth quarter.

[1] Council on Foreign Relations. “Trump Pauses Threat to Hit Energy Sites.” Accessed March 24, 2026.

[2] The Wall Street Journal. “Thousands of Marines to Arrive in CENTCOM the Same Day as Trump’s Iran Deadline.” Live Coverage, 2026.

[3] Task & Purpose. “Marines, USS Boxer Head to Middle East.” Accessed March 24, 2026.

[4] The New York Times. “U.S. Sends Airborne Troops Amid Iran Tensions.” March 23, 2026.

[5] U.S. Central Command. “Epic Fury.” Accessed March 24, 2026.

[6] The Independent. “Admiral Brad Cooper Warns of Potential Iran Attacks.” 2026.

[7] NPR. “Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Has Been Killed.” By Daniel Estrin, Greg Myre, Jane Arraf, and others. February 28, 2026.

[8] The Washington Post. “Inside Iran’s Regime and Intelligence Apparatus.” March 16, 2026.

[9] Ynetnews. “Report on Iran Conflict Developments.” Accessed March 24, 2026.

[10] The Wall Street Journal. “Iran Targeted Diego Garcia Base with Ballistic Missiles.” Live Coverage, 2026.

[11] Associated Press. “Stocks and Oil Markets React to Iran Developments.” 2026.

[12] Mizan News Agency. “Official Statement.” X (formerly Twitter), March 2026.

[13] The Wall Street Journal. “22 Countries Signal Readiness to Help Secure Strait of Hormuz.” Live Coverage, 2026.

[14] NPR. “Some Ships Find Ways to Sail Through the Strait of Hormuz as Hundreds Are Stalled.” By Jackie Northam. March 23, 2026.